> ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # Normality Open In Colab In many cases, only the time series at the lowest level of the hierarchies (bottom time series) are available. `HierarchicalForecast` has tools to create time series for all hierarchies and also allows you to calculate prediction intervals for all hierarchies. In this notebook we will see how to do it. ```python theme={null} !pip install hierarchicalforecast statsforecast ``` ```python theme={null} import pandas as pd # compute base forecast no coherent from statsforecast.models import AutoARIMA from statsforecast.core import StatsForecast #obtain hierarchical reconciliation methods and evaluation from hierarchicalforecast.methods import BottomUp, MinTrace from hierarchicalforecast.utils import aggregate, HierarchicalPlot from hierarchicalforecast.core import HierarchicalReconciliation ``` ## Aggregate bottom time series In this example we will use the [Tourism](https://otexts.com/fpp3/tourism.html) dataset from the [Forecasting: Principles and Practice](https://otexts.com/fpp3/) book. The dataset only contains the time series at the lowest level, so we need to create the time series for all hierarchies. ```python theme={null} Y_df = pd.read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Nixtla/transfer-learning-time-series/main/datasets/tourism.csv') Y_df = Y_df.rename({'Trips': 'y', 'Quarter': 'ds'}, axis=1) Y_df.insert(0, 'Country', 'Australia') Y_df = Y_df[['Country', 'Region', 'State', 'Purpose', 'ds', 'y']] Y_df['ds'] = Y_df['ds'].str.replace(r'(\d+) (Q\d)', r'\1-\2', regex=True) Y_df['ds'] = pd.PeriodIndex(Y_df["ds"], freq='Q').to_timestamp() Y_df.head() ``` | | Country | Region | State | Purpose | ds | y | | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 0 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1998-01-01 | 135.077690 | | 1 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1998-04-01 | 109.987316 | | 2 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1998-07-01 | 166.034687 | | 3 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1998-10-01 | 127.160464 | | 4 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1999-01-01 | 137.448533 | The dataset can be grouped in the following non-strictly hierarchical structure. ```python theme={null} spec = [ ['Country'], ['Country', 'State'], ['Country', 'Purpose'], ['Country', 'State', 'Region'], ['Country', 'State', 'Purpose'], ['Country', 'State', 'Region', 'Purpose'] ] ``` Using the `aggregate` function from `HierarchicalForecast` we can generate: 1. `Y_df`: the hierarchical structured series $\mathbf{y}_{[a,b]\tau}$ 2. `S_df`: the aggregation constraints dataframe with $S_{[a,b]}$ 3. `tags`: a list with the ‘unique\_ids’ conforming to each aggregation level. ```python theme={null} Y_df, S_df, tags = aggregate(df=Y_df, spec=spec) ``` ```python theme={null} Y_df.head() ``` | | unique\_id | ds | y | | - | - | - | - | | 0 | Australia | 1998-01-01 | 23182.197269 | | 1 | Australia | 1998-04-01 | 20323.380067 | | 2 | Australia | 1998-07-01 | 19826.640511 | | 3 | Australia | 1998-10-01 | 20830.129891 | | 4 | Australia | 1999-01-01 | 22087.353380 | ```python theme={null} S_df.iloc[:5, :5] ``` | | unique\_id | Australia/ACT/Canberra/Business | Australia/ACT/Canberra/Holiday | Australia/ACT/Canberra/Other | Australia/ACT/Canberra/Visiting | | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 0 | Australia | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | | 1 | Australia/ACT | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | | 2 | Australia/New South Wales | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 3 | Australia/Northern Territory | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 4 | Australia/Queensland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ```python theme={null} tags['Country/Purpose'] ``` ```text theme={null} array(['Australia/Business', 'Australia/Holiday', 'Australia/Other', 'Australia/Visiting'], dtype=object) ``` We can visualize the `S` matrix and the data using the `HierarchicalPlot` class as follows. ```python theme={null} hplot = HierarchicalPlot(S=S_df, tags=tags) ``` ```python theme={null} hplot.plot_summing_matrix() ``` ```python theme={null} hplot.plot_hierarchically_linked_series( bottom_series='Australia/ACT/Canberra/Holiday', Y_df=Y_df ) ``` ### Split Train/Test sets We use the final two years (8 quarters) as test set. ```python theme={null} Y_test_df = Y_df.groupby('unique_id', as_index=False).tail(8) Y_train_df = Y_df.drop(Y_test_df.index) ``` ```python theme={null} Y_train_df.groupby('unique_id').size() ``` ```text theme={null} unique_id Australia 72 Australia/ACT 72 Australia/ACT/Business 72 Australia/ACT/Canberra 72 Australia/ACT/Canberra/Business 72 .. Australia/Western Australia/Experience Perth/Other 72 Australia/Western Australia/Experience Perth/Visiting 72 Australia/Western Australia/Holiday 72 Australia/Western Australia/Other 72 Australia/Western Australia/Visiting 72 Length: 425, dtype: int64 ``` ## Computing base forecasts The following cell computes the **base forecasts** for each time series in `Y_df` using the `AutoARIMA` model. Observe that `Y_hat_df` contains the forecasts but they are not coherent. To reconcile the prediction intervals we need to calculate the incoherent intervals using the `level` argument of `StatsForecast`. ```python theme={null} fcst = StatsForecast(models=[AutoARIMA(season_length=4)], freq='QS', n_jobs=-1) Y_hat_df = fcst.forecast(df=Y_train_df, h=8, fitted=True, level=[80, 90]) Y_fitted_df = fcst.forecast_fitted_values() ``` ## Reconcile forecasts The following cell makes the previous forecasts coherent using the `HierarchicalReconciliation` class. Since the hierarchy structure is not strict, we can’t use methods such as `TopDown` or `MiddleOut`. In this example we use `BottomUp` and `MinTrace`. If you want to calculate prediction intervals, you have to use the `level` argument as follows. ```python theme={null} reconcilers = [ BottomUp(), MinTrace(method='mint_shrink'), MinTrace(method='ols') ] hrec = HierarchicalReconciliation(reconcilers=reconcilers) Y_rec_df = hrec.reconcile(Y_hat_df=Y_hat_df, Y_df=Y_fitted_df, S_df=S_df, tags=tags, level=[80, 90]) ``` The dataframe `Y_rec_df` contains the reconciled forecasts. ```python theme={null} Y_rec_df.head() ``` | | unique\_id | ds | AutoARIMA | AutoARIMA-lo-90 | AutoARIMA-lo-80 | AutoARIMA-hi-80 | AutoARIMA-hi-90 | AutoARIMA/BottomUp | AutoARIMA/BottomUp-lo-90 | AutoARIMA/BottomUp-lo-80 | ... | AutoARIMA/MinTrace\_method-mint\_shrink | AutoARIMA/MinTrace\_method-mint\_shrink-lo-90 | AutoARIMA/MinTrace\_method-mint\_shrink-lo-80 | AutoARIMA/MinTrace\_method-mint\_shrink-hi-80 | AutoARIMA/MinTrace\_method-mint\_shrink-hi-90 | AutoARIMA/MinTrace\_method-ols | AutoARIMA/MinTrace\_method-ols-lo-90 | AutoARIMA/MinTrace\_method-ols-lo-80 | AutoARIMA/MinTrace\_method-ols-hi-80 | AutoARIMA/MinTrace\_method-ols-hi-90 | | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 0 | Australia | 2016-01-01 | 26212.553553 | 24705.948180 | 25038.715077 | 27386.392029 | 27719.158927 | 24646.517084 | 23983.656843 | 24130.064091 | ... | 25267.797338 | 24491.630618 | 24663.064091 | 25872.530586 | 26043.964058 | 26082.753488 | 25010.876141 | 25247.623803 | 26917.883174 | 27154.630835 | | 1 | Australia | 2016-04-01 | 25033.667125 | 23337.267588 | 23711.954696 | 26355.379554 | 26730.066662 | 22942.957703 | 22229.916838 | 22387.407579 | ... | 23836.804444 | 23002.620214 | 23186.868128 | 24486.740760 | 24670.988674 | 24822.102094 | 23616.734393 | 23882.966332 | 25761.237857 | 26027.469796 | | 2 | Australia | 2016-07-01 | 24507.027198 | 22640.028798 | 23052.396413 | 25961.657983 | 26374.025599 | 22568.286488 | 21805.892199 | 21974.283728 | ... | 23294.240908 | 22410.719833 | 22605.864873 | 23982.616942 | 24177.761983 | 24269.578724 | 22944.380043 | 23237.079287 | 25302.078162 | 25594.777406 | | 3 | Australia | 2016-10-01 | 25598.928613 | 23575.665243 | 24022.547410 | 27175.309816 | 27622.191983 | 23113.075726 | 22308.671860 | 22486.342127 | ... | 24154.484487 | 23221.706185 | 23427.730766 | 24881.238208 | 25087.262790 | 25340.549923 | 23905.434070 | 24222.410936 | 26458.688911 | 26775.665777 | | 4 | Australia | 2017-01-01 | 26982.576796 | 24669.535238 | 25180.421285 | 28784.732308 | 29295.618354 | 23779.264921 | 22874.194227 | 23074.098975 | ... | 25155.001372 | 24125.268915 | 24352.707952 | 25957.294793 | 26184.733830 | 26690.200927 | 25051.352698 | 25413.328335 | 27967.073518 | 28329.049155 | ## Plot forecasts Then we can plot the probabilistic forecasts using the following function. ```python theme={null} plot_df = Y_df.merge(Y_rec_df, on=['unique_id', 'ds'], how="outer") ``` ### Plot single time series ```python theme={null} hplot.plot_series( series='Australia', Y_df=plot_df, models=['y', 'AutoARIMA', 'AutoARIMA/MinTrace_method-ols'], level=[80] ) ``` ```python theme={null} # Since we are plotting a bottom time series # the probabilistic and mean forecasts # are the same hplot.plot_series( series='Australia/Western Australia/Experience Perth/Visiting', Y_df=plot_df, models=['y', 'AutoARIMA', 'AutoARIMA/BottomUp'], level=[80] ) ``` ### Plot hierarchically linked time series ```python theme={null} hplot.plot_hierarchically_linked_series( bottom_series='Australia/Western Australia/Experience Perth/Visiting', Y_df=plot_df, models=['y', 'AutoARIMA', 'AutoARIMA/MinTrace_method-ols', 'AutoARIMA/BottomUp'], level=[80] ) ``` ```python theme={null} # ACT only has Canberra hplot.plot_hierarchically_linked_series( bottom_series='Australia/ACT/Canberra/Other', Y_df=plot_df, models=['y', 'AutoARIMA/MinTrace_method-mint_shrink'], level=[80, 90] ) ``` ### References * [Hyndman, R.J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2021). “Forecasting: principles and practice, 3rd edition: Chapter 11: Forecasting hierarchical and grouped series.”. OTexts: Melbourne, Australia. OTexts.com/fpp3 Accessed on July 2022.](https://otexts.com/fpp3/hierarchical.html) * [Shanika L. Wickramasuriya, George Athanasopoulos, and Rob J. Hyndman. Optimal forecast reconciliation for hierarchical and grouped time series through trace minimization.Journal of the American Statistical Association, 114(526):804–819, 2019. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2018.1448825. URL https://robjhyndman.com/publications/mint/.](https://robjhyndman.com/publications/mint/) ## Related topics - [Probabilistic Methods](/hierarchicalforecast/probabilistic_methods.html.md) - [Probabilistic Reconciliation Methods Comparison](/hierarchicalforecast/examples/probabilistic-reconciliation-comparison.html.md) - [Core | HierarchicalForecast](/hierarchicalforecast/core.html.md) - [Conformal Prediction](/statsforecast/docs/tutorials/conformalprediction.html.md) - [Hierarchical Forecast 👑](/hierarchicalforecast/index.html.md)